Crisis of Trust and Faith hovering over Modi

CRISIS OF TRUST AND FAITH HOVERING OVER MODI
मोदी पर मंडराता विश्वास और ईमान का संकट

Some 8 months back, the conclusions from a matter-of-fact analysis were posted as “IN MODI, WE TRUST! WHY?” (https://intheworldofideas.blogspot.com/2018/03/in-modi-we-trust-why.html). The same were made available in Hindi about 4 months back under the title “मोदी में क्यों है, ‘हमारा’ भरोसा?” (https://www.facebook.com/vichaaronkeeduniyamein/posts/400523940456528/). Scrutiny of the evolving narrative and public discourse over the last two months which has the potential to shape the outcomes of forthcoming elections leads to the following strands of thoughts that MODI and his strategists need to consider if they wish to be careful about their political rival:

(1) Personal credibility of RAGA has already bottomed out and from this point forward it cannot sink any further, rather his credibility can only climb up for reasons of empathy, noise, attacking posture, and emergent team and allies. MODI has enjoyed high personal credibility which is now waning due to credibility or lack of it for his team. MODI needs to hold on and prevent any erosion in trust which people have reposed in him. RAGA is trying everything possible to dent people’s trust in MODI and attempting to earn it for himself; his failure thus far is no guarantee for his continued malfunction.

(2) The next electoral choice is neither between NDA and UPA or BJP and INC. The electoral battle lines are now firmly drawn between MODI and RAGA and the individuals and the parties backing them have lost their individuality. MODI and RAGA are becoming much more of two parties and are less of individuals. Till date only RAGA has thrown in his hat in the arena for the battle of 2019. If the opposition throws up a Prime ministerial candidate before the next elections, such candidate would inherit the legacy which RAGA would leave behind.

(3) Finance and Defence, two out of the four key Ministers (other two being External Affairs and Home) in MODI government, have no mass constituency. They have never been accepted or chosen by people through any election. There is no political constituency which these two have nurtured and who would slug it out in the political arena on their behalf. They seem to be confidantes of MODI but are unable to project themselves as competent or people’s choices. Finance Minister has had his hand in the Rafale deal as former Defence Minister while the incumbent Defence Minister was serving as his deputy in the Ministry of Finance. She has no grass root political or governmental experience. She has PWC background, a firm which has only been infamous for wrongdoings all over the world. Together, they are the most vulnerable and indefensible in the Rafale deal; and RAGA is smart enough to hit at this point of weakness. His daily attack through press conferences is already holing up MODI.

(4) By bringing unbearable pressure on NAMO to annul the Supreme Court verdict quashing the provision of the arrest without inquiry in case of a complaint by SC/ST through legislation, RAGA has succeeded in fracturing the NAMO’s Hindu vote bank. Again by not supporting NAMO on ‘triple talak’ thereby forcing him to bring in an ordinance, RAGA has retained about 50% of his male Muslim vote and clearly turned the tables on NAMO by bringing ‘attack on Muslim personal law’ as political discourse. As a result, NAMO is competitively branded and positioned as more socially divisive, at least in the minds of the younger voter, than what RAGA’s party has always actually been.

(5) RAGA has smartly paid back the BJP in its own currency by coining “गली गली में शोर है, इस देश का चौकीदार चोर है” to voice his narrative around Rafale deal; which is a true reversal of attack through narrative around the Bofors deal epitomised in the popular slogan of 1989 General election “गली गली में शोर है, राजीव गान्धी चोर है”. Notwithstanding the truth and the facts in either case, which no one knows with any certainty, if the 1989 slogan caught public traction; there is every chance for the new slogan to catch traction in 2019.

(6) The youngest voter in 2019 election was not even born in the 20th century. It may serve no useful purpose to refer to issues of the 20th century for the electorate of the 21st century. Invoking the history of wrong doing of Congress and RAGA’s ancestors does not cut much ice with the younger voters. (Nearly 40% of the 2019 voters have no personal memory of Rajiv Gandhi, 50% don’t have memories of Indira Gandhi and 70% have nothing to recall from Emergency era). When informed about the failings and shortcomings of that era, there are two major reactions coming from the young electorate – why did you let them do it; and, there is no justification for the present government to expect us to overlook its wrong doings because our parents overlooked or suffered the wrong doings of RAGA’s ancestors.


MODI as an individual has been trusted due to - his effectiveness in the party and in the government; his relieving anxiety and securing identity for an ordinary person cutting across age, gender and religion; his successful rhetoric; his cultural resonance or meaning; and securing legitimacy to his ideas through electoral victories. MODI as a pan India political collective during the next election needs a new and a different proposition to enjoy people’s trust and confidence.

RAGA has been a tremendous learner (एकलव्य) of the lesson which Modi (द्रोणाचार्य) has scripted - RATIONALITY is necessarily “Political, Emotional, Cultural, Institutional and Rhetorical” but not REDUCIBLE to any ONE of them.

कहीं ऐसा ना हो जाये कि गुरु तो गुड़ रह जाये और चेला शक्कर हो जाये?

The recent 3-day conclave by RSS offered key strategic directions which could be used in the 2019 campaign by MODI ‘the collective’. Few suggestions were –

A. “No Congress Mukt Bharat chant” instead acknowledge the party’s role in Indian Independence, meaning thereby focus on “Dynasty Mukt Bharat”;

B. don’t alienate the ‘Urban intelligentsia and Moderate Hindu’ by siding with the ‘Hindutva’ as an agenda of the ‘hardliners’ as an exclusion of Muslims but as inclusive of Indian Muslims;

C. do not alienate and polarise Muslims by hounding them for the sins of their ancestors by pursuing ‘Ram-temple’ as something to be rebuilt over the ‘masjid’ which was supposedly built by demolishing the temple, instead propagate the idea of ‘New Ram-temple’ as a symbol of Hindu-Muslim understanding and brotherhood;

D. to counter the threat of NOTA coming from the upper caste ire, present yourself not as the “best” but as the “best among available” choices;

E. keep ‘cows’ in focus but stomp out acts of vendetta or violence by vigilantes and street urchins with a size 14 shoe;

F. keep up with the pursuit of the nationalistic agenda around Articles 370 and 35A of the Constitution.

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